Friday, 3 July 2009

Disaster explained

Let's start this off with a P&L shall we?

Horse Racing: -GBP30.12 Total P&L: -GBP30.12
Horse RacingShowing 1 - 7 of 7 markets
MarketStart timeSettled dateProfit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Strat 30th Jun : 2m7f Beg Chs30-Jun-09 20:4530-Jun-09 20:53-17.29
Horse Racing / Strat 30th Jun : 2m4f Hcap Chs30-Jun-09 19:4530-Jun-09 19:523.58
Horse Racing / Thirsk 30th Jun : 7f Hcap30-Jun-09 19:3030-Jun-09 19:39-2.19
Horse Racing / Strat 30th Jun : 2m Claim Hrd30-Jun-09 19:1530-Jun-09 19:2115.27
Horse Racing / Thirsk 30th Jun : 6f Mdn Stks30-Jun-09 19:0030-Jun-09 19:11-12.00
Horse Racing / Strat 30th Jun : 2m Mdn Hrd30-Jun-09 18:4530-Jun-09 18:52-17.49
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.

Not pretty! Now I should explain a couple of points first. To begin with, it's not as bad as it seems (relatively). I decided that I should try to see how I cope with 'bigger' numbers, so everything you see above here was achieved using £5 tick sizes rather than the normal £1, so the losses while large can not be compared with the wins of previous days.

I knew a day like this would come - it was typical that it was on a day I'd chosen to up the stakes. But perhaps that's the point - perhaps my mind is not yet ready for such big numbers being thrown all over the place. I should have stuck to my guns and worked my stakes up slowly. Hindsight is 20-20.

So what happened? Well, to begin with the evening's racing was always going to be polar. When I looked at the race card I saw it was either going to be a very good night, or a very bad one. Almost every single race was a swing traders dream - scalpers (if they were folly enough to try it) would have been eaten alive.

Now I always struggle with swing betting - I just don't have the knowledge or experience to judge it well enough. It goes back to what I said before - if there's no clear opporunity don't bet! I get an itchy trigger finger when I've watch a race for 10 minutes and not bet. I need to improve this. I was getting wound up by my lack of knowledge... On many occasions there was no clear sign of an impending swing, yet the price would keep moving significantly.

No excuses though, it was my fault. A better trader would have made a whopping great profit. A couple of the races saw me put my clown hat on and chase losses. When I started doing that I thought best to leave it for the night.

Not a good showing, if I'm honest. I know I can do better than this. I simply have to get better at swing trading - I'm unacceptably poor. Still, it's the weekend now so with luck this was a glitch, not the beginning of a trend.


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