To Hell and Back

Today's tick size ranged from £1.10 to £2.50.

Phew!

I think I need to lay down. There were some absolutely outrageous things going on tonight and I think my heart did actually stop for 10 seconds or so when I saw my horse drift from 5.00 to 9.00 in about 8 seconds!!

By the time I managed to close my position I was massively out of the money - but I did the right thing as it kept going further and further out - to the point I thought of jumping on the bandwagon. I've read that jumping on swings mid trade is not usually a good idea, so I managed to resist. I'm proud to say that I managed to avoid going on tilt and viewed the massive loss as a fact of life. Here's the P&L for today.

Horse Racing: GBP55.21 Total P&L: GBP55.21

Horse Racing Showing 1 - 12 of 12 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Muss 29th Jun : 7f Hcap 29-Jun-09 21:25 29-Jun-09 21:36 1.87 Horse Racing / Wind 29th Jun : 1m Hcap 29-Jun-09 21:10 29-Jun-09 21:19 1.31 Horse Racing / Muss 29th Jun : 1m Hcap 29-Jun-09 20:55 29-Jun-09 21:01 5.45 Horse Racing / Wind 29th Jun : 1m3f Hcap 29-Jun-09 20:40 29-Jun-09 20:46 4.84 Horse Racing / Muss 29th Jun : 1m4f Hcap 29-Jun-09 20:25 29-Jun-09 20:29 6.38 Horse Racing / Wind 29th Jun : 1m2f Hcap 29-Jun-09 20:10 29-Jun-09 20:17 10.65 Horse Racing / Muss 29th Jun : 5f Mdn Stks 29-Jun-09 19:55 29-Jun-09 19:58 9.31 Horse Racing / Wind 29th Jun : 6f Mdn Stks 29-Jun-09 19:40 29-Jun-09 19:50 2.12 Horse Racing / Muss 29th Jun : 5f Hcap 29-Jun-09 19:25 29-Jun-09 19:41 4.60 Horse Racing / Wind 29th Jun : 6f Sell Stks 29-Jun-09 19:10 29-Jun-09 19:13 3.37 Horse Racing / Muss 29th Jun : 2m Hcap 29-Jun-09 18:55 29-Jun-09 19:02 5.22 Horse Racing / Wind 29th Jun : 5f Mdn Stks 29-Jun-09 18:40 29-Jun-09 18:45 0.09

Notice anything strange? No losses! Yeah baby. That massive loss I took on the chin decided to bring itself right back down to 5.00 from 9.00. This time I rode it the right way and made pretty much all my money back. What started as a tight-ranged scalping market very quickly turned in to a nightmare swing. I wish I had saved the graph of the horse, but alas it's gone.

There were definitely a few hairy moments today - I have made a quick video of a scalping market I attacked. You can see that near the start I was just watching the market to see any trends that were developing. I decided that the market was going to stay rangebound, but show high volatility characteristics due to the quality of the race.

No sooner than I got started a nice big bet came flying in taking me a good few ticks out of the money. Not a good start. But again I kept my composure and manged to claw back the loss for a tidy profit. I wish every market was like this - we'd all make a killing!

I'm off to watch Top Gear now - missed it last night. Big fan of Stephen Fry so it should be a giggle. Video below:

Looking Tough

Looks like tonights trading is going to be tough - low quality races all night - and they're all spread by 15 minutes. Well you can pick your battles, but not your wars. I'm expecting some losses tonight so we'll see how it goes. I have some funky freeware screen recording software too, so I'll see if I can record some bits of the master in action.

Grab your nuts.

Mixed Feelings

Today's tick size was £1.

Today I smashed my daily profit for any day I've ever traded. I should feel elated - but I feel slightly awkward. I think I know why. Let's start with a P&L:

Horse Racing: GBP45.40 Total P&L: GBP45.40

Horse Racing Showing 1 - 20 of 20 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Uttox 28th Jun : 2m NHF 28-Jun-09 17:25 28-Jun-09 17:34 0.53 Horse Racing / Salis 28th Jun : 1m Hcap 28-Jun-09 17:20 28-Jun-09 17:24 -2.12 Horse Racing / Wind 28th Jun : 1m3f Mdn Stks 28-Jun-09 17:10 28-Jun-09 17:14 3.80 Horse Racing / Uttox 28th Jun : 2m Hcap Chs 28-Jun-09 16:55 28-Jun-09 17:04 -0.37 Horse Racing / Salis 28th Jun : 1m2f Mdn Stks 28-Jun-09 16:45 28-Jun-09 16:52 0.57 Horse Racing / Wind 28th Jun : 1m Hcap 28-Jun-09 16:35 28-Jun-09 16:39 0.84 Horse Racing / Uttox 28th Jun : 3m4f Hcap Chs 28-Jun-09 16:25 28-Jun-09 16:35 0.89 Horse Racing / Curr 28th Jun : 1m4f Grp1 28-Jun-09 16:20 28-Jun-09 16:25 5.96 Horse Racing / Salis 28th Jun : 6f Cond Stks 28-Jun-09 16:10 28-Jun-09 16:15 15.74 Horse Racing / Wind 28th Jun : 5f Cond Stks 28-Jun-09 16:00 28-Jun-09 16:08 -1.49 Horse Racing / Uttox 28th Jun : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 28-Jun-09 15:50 28-Jun-09 15:56 2.56 Horse Racing / Salis 28th Jun : 1m6f Hcap 28-Jun-09 15:35 28-Jun-09 15:44 12.61 Horse Racing / Wind 28th Jun : 1m2f Hcap 28-Jun-09 15:25 28-Jun-09 15:32 -2.90 Horse Racing / Salis 28th Jun : 5f Hcap 28-Jun-09 15:05 28-Jun-09 15:13 1.37 Horse Racing / Wind 28th Jun : 5f Hcap 28-Jun-09 14:55 28-Jun-09 15:00 0.98 Horse Racing / Uttox 28th Jun : 2m4f Mdn Hrd 28-Jun-09 14:45 28-Jun-09 14:52 3.65 Horse Racing / Salis 28th Jun : 1m2f Hcap 28-Jun-09 14:35 28-Jun-09 14:43 1.06 Horse Racing / Wind 28th Jun : 1m Hcap 28-Jun-09 14:25 28-Jun-09 14:29 2.15 Horse Racing / Uttox 28th Jun : 2m Nov Hrd 28-Jun-09 14:15 28-Jun-09 14:23 1.91 Horse Racing / Salis 28th Jun : 7f Mdn Stks 28-Jun-09 14:00 28-Jun-09 14:05 -2.34

Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.

There's a few losses scattered throughout the day as you can see, but at this stage in my trading career I'm fully expecting of that. It seems standard to start the day with a loss, but I made things up very nicely in the next few races which I am quite pleased about. In particular I scalped very well all day.

My biggest concerns were my two biggest wins. Yesterday I decided I would experiment further with in-play betting - but only where the odds were very close to closing my position at the off. I know for a fact that it's very, very likely that over longer races your orders will be filled, but there's always the off chance that your horse will run in to a fence and die of massive brain trauma.

So what am I saying? Well, just look at the sheer size of the wins. I was filled on both occasions within 5 seconds of the off, but seemingly I must have had a bet left over somewhere I didn't know about. During the race my "green" figure kept changing - as soon I noticed this I greened out for massive profits. But I'm concerned that it happened twice. Guess I need to be more careful as it could have easily gone the other way.

I can really feel myself getting better, though. Now when I see someone lump £5k on a relatively low volatility race I don't just go chasing the money - I wait to see if it gets pulled or if money starts to follow. My disicpline is getting better certainly, but it can definitely improve.

The great thing about trading is that it's scalable. I increased my bank by 10% today, so when I next trade I will increase my ticks by 10% also to £1.10. This will compound my winnings (and losses) further - but this is definitely the way forward. Doing things this way means that I have less chance of a heart attack when raising my stakes... just easing in to the bigger money over time.

Back to work tomorrow... but a nice thought to take with me is that the afternoon's trading session scales up to £500 profit at £10 tick size! I'm still a long way off having the balls to do that, but we're on the right track.

Ice Ice baby

Today's tick size was £1.

As expected the bastards at Ikea stopped me from doing much trading today. Add to that the fact that ice cubes the size of testicles were falling from the sky in a hail storm - not much trading got done. I was worried that the lightning might affect my internet connection and decide to hold off any further races.

All in all the races I did trade went well. Here's the P&L:

Horse Racing: GBP5.18 Total P&L: GBP5.18

Horse Racing Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Ling 27th Jun : 5f Mdn Stks 27-Jun-09 19:20 27-Jun-09 19:24 0.60 Horse Racing / Donc 27th Jun : 1m Hcap 27-Jun-09 19:05 27-Jun-09 19:15 0.83 Horse Racing / Ling 27th Jun : 1m2f Mdn Stks 27-Jun-09 18:50 27-Jun-09 18:56 3.17 Horse Racing / Ling 27th Jun : 1m4f Hcap 27-Jun-09 18:15 27-Jun-09 18:20 0.58

Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.

I'll give a bit of a rundown:

Race 1 (1815 @ Ling) I tried to scalp very agressively. The favourite was at odds of 8.00 when I arrived and seemed quite range-bound. Using the ladder interface in Bet Angel I was constantly placing trades around both sides of the current price. The main task here is to watch your 'net stake' - if I started getting too heavy on one side I would try to fill orders on the other before continuing.

In the end I was slightly out of the money - but the price was so very close to me being in profit I decided to let it run in play. With 14 runners and 1m4f to run I was very confident I would be filled - and I was quickly, greening out for 61p.

Race 2 had a 20 minute gap from the previous - I decided to give this a wide berth after the crap yesterday, though with an odds on favourite in the field it was a shame. Perhaps as I get more confident in my ability I will be able to trade these races.

Race 3 (1850 @ Ling)was very nice. I managed to catch 4 nice swings, but the inevitable mistakes that come with swing trading ate in to my profit somewhat. Still - a very positive showing.

A very tough scalping market developed in 1905 @ Donc - initially the favourite had odds of around 3.45, with the second horse @ 5. I find these races hard. I find that set-ups like this dont tend to swing enough to be classified as a proper swing opportunity, but move a little too much for non-heart palpation scalping.

I was out of the money right until the end on this one. At the off the odds came very near to where I had 3 bets I needed to close - so close in fact I decided to let the bets run in play again. Sure enough in the first 5 seconds they were filled and I greened out. I'm still undecided on this strategy ... am I going to get really burned letting things go in play? How close is close enough to justify it? I will keep testing this.

Just before it started thundering outside the 1920 @ Ling took place. Bloody hell.

"Nepostism" starting the day at 5-1, was 3-1 at the off - but it happened so quickly. I was trading the fav, "Where's the Soap" when out of the corner of my eye I saw Nepostism start to come in. The weight of money on "Where's the Soap" implied he was about to drift - sure enough he did and I made a nice 10 tick profit. At this point I turned my attention to Nepo - should you change horses mid trading? I don't know. I made a small loss on Nepo in the end, he was just too volatile. Someone knew something and he certainly warranted the crash in price by winning the race.

Small green total for an all green night. Nepo's price graph below.

Schooled

Today's tick size was £1.

I am going to take more positives today than I will negatives. Considering how new I am to this I'm quite proud that I managed to trade the whole evening with just one loss. The issue, however, is that the loss was comparatively massive. Time for a P&L methinks.

Horse Racing: -GBP0.26 Total P&L: -GBP0.26 Horse Racing Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Chest 26th Jun : 7f Mdn Stks 26-Jun-09 19:15 26-Jun-09 19:17 3.23 Horse Racing / Newm 26th Jun : 1m Claim Stks 26-Jun-09 19:00 26-Jun-09 19:05 1.35 Horse Racing / Newc 26th Jun : 1m2f Hcap 26-Jun-09 18:50 26-Jun-09 18:56 0.78 Horse Racing / Chest 26th Jun : 7f Hcap 26-Jun-09 18:40 26-Jun-09 18:45 1.56 Horse Racing / Newm 26th Jun : 6f Mdn Stks 26-Jun-09 18:00 26-Jun-09 18:04 -7.56 Horse Racing / Donc 26th Jun : 1m4f Hcap 26-Jun-09 17:40 26-Jun-09 17:45 0.38 Horse Racing / MrktR 26th Jun : 2m1f NHF 26-Jun-09 17:25 26-Jun-09 17:34 0.00 Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.

Can you spot it? Bah! The most infuriating thing about it was that it was completely avoidable. It was entirely my fault that the loss had a chance to materialise.

Before I started trading, as usual, I fired up Bet Angel's Guardian sub-program to check out the timings of the evening's racing. I highlighted the 18:00 at Newcastle as a race I simply wouldn't trade. There was a 20 minute gap between it and the race before - as a result it was inevitable that the liquidity of the market would suffer. And it did.

I stupidly went in for 'one quick trade' when there was hardly any money in there and bang, £10,000 gets placed and I got shot 20 ticks the wrong way. ARSE.

As is my policy when these big bets come in and throw the market in to chaos, I immediately closed my position for a prolific loss. Had it gone the other way I would have closed the position too. I've been told these sort of swings will even themselves out over time - not always going against you.

But it is annoying. I performed well by my standards on all other races - I suppose it's good that I kept my head and managed to make the money back.

A thought I have taken from the day is that there's not always going to be a trade there, no matter how hard you look. I'm going to be more conscious that not making a bet is just as important as making one. Not trading for the sake of trading is the way forward... never to commit myself unless I see a clear opportunity. A wise man once said that a few trades of high quality is of far more benefit that many trades of average quality.

Tomorrow I have to refit my office so I'm going to Ikea. I hate it there with a passion and I swear I'm allergic to flat pack furniture. We'll see if I manage to get any trading in tomorrow.

Where's your head at

A little about me, then. Specifically where I am in my fledgling trading career.

I have been arb'ing bookies for a couple of years now - more of a hobby bringing in a couple of hundred here and there. I therefore have the basic knowledge of bookmaking, dutching and how betting exchanges work. What I certainly haven't mastered is trading. I am 4 weeks in to my career, but working full time five days a week allows me to trade evenings and weekends only.

I have attended the course designed and presented by Peter Webb on trading (I highly recommend it to anyone considering starting), but I'm certainly not out of my loss making stages yet.

I will post a quick P&L of where I'm at right now, and give you updates in some form or another as time goes on. There were more days than this, but this was prior to the record keeping tips Peter shared on his course.

Total Positive Days 6

Total Negative Days 3

Total Neutral Days 0

My net profit during this time is £11.83. This is using £1 tick sizes. I will post far more detailed records going forward.

I'm finding at the moment I'm losing money doing categorically stupid things - clicking the wrong button, for instance. Something that has also begun to worry me slightly is going on tilt when I lose. I naturally want to chase losses - throw good money after bad. I MUST get over this. Hindsight is 20-20, but in the heat of the moment it's hard to think clearly.

No word of a lie - I now have the words "Don't be a Pillock!!" on top of my monitor.

One thing I have learned this that losses pale to insignificance in the long term. Sure, one bad race may wipe out a whole day, or even week's profit, but there are 365 days and 52 weeks in a year. When you look at like that it's not so bad... unless you do it every week!

I won't be able to trade tomorrow, it will probably be Friday when I next get in front of my computer. I will reset my Betfair balance to £500 and proceed from square one. We're going for £1 tick sizes and will be using Bet Angel - which I highly recommend.

Grab your nuts... here we go!

And so it begins

Today was representative of the many days that have come before it: hard, long, soul-sapping. It was on a day such as today that I first thought to ask myself if hard, long soul-sapping days were the way forward for me. I thought about that question seriously for a whole month before deciding that things were going to change. No longer would I work as hard as I had been to make someone else money - I would focus all that effort on creating something myself, and I'd do it now!

But alas - life is not that easy. With a mortgage to pay and bills to settle it was reality check time. Things may take longer than I had hoped.

It's not all bad, though. I have a determined mind - and I'm now fully focused on becoming a full time Betting Exchange Trader. With dedication and perseverance I'm sure I will make it. The only question in my mind is when.

I've read many blogs out there with people reporting vast earnings through trading every day. Adam Heathcote, Peter Webb - they're leaders in this field. But this blog is not going to be like that. If you're just interested in big numbers then at this juncture this blog is not for you. I certainly hope I can appease you some day. This blog is going to be a real representation of what things are going to be like for people like you, who like me is just starting out.

I won't be reporting £1,000 a day profits just yet. I probably won't be reporting £10. But one thing I will report is progress, and more importantly, how that progress was derived. Please feel free to comment, criticise or ask questions - I will always do my best to respond. I'm sure this blog will take months to get off it's feet, but when it does I hope to foster a mutual air of support between us traders who are climbing the ladder.

Well here goes nothing, and I'll post a bit more info of exactly where I'm at shortly.